Bernstein Says Buy Coinbase, Robinhood, Figure Dip

Bernstein price target cuts hit Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure Technology Solutions on Monday — but the firm's message to investors was clear: these are dips worth buying. Analyst Gautam Chhugani trimmed his numbers across all three names, citing geopolitical turbulence and beaten-down crypto sentiment, yet held firm on Outperform ratings for each. The stocks are sitting roughly 60% below their 2025 peaks. That, in Bernstein's view, is the opportunity.

Where Bernstein Sees the Floor

The new targets tell the story. Bernstein price target Coinbase Robinhood cuts came across the board: Coinbase (COIN) dropped to $330 from $440, Robinhood (HOOD) to $130 from $160, and Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) to $67 from $72. Chhugani didn't bury the lede — the note opened with a blunt acknowledgment that Q1 earnings will be ugly and that crypto stocks could find their bottom into that weakness.

"In our view, these businesses offer exposure to trillion dollar markets with years of growth ahead — prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real world assets, crypto derivatives, and further beta on crypto recovery from the bottom," Chhugani said in the note. The language is bullish, but it's long-cycle bullish. Nobody is calling a v-shaped recovery here.

We believe we will see a bottom in crypto stocks into weak Q1 earnings.

Coinbase Takes the Deepest Hit

Of the three, Coinbase absorbs the roughest blow to estimates. Spot volumes are tracking roughly 30% below Q4 2025 levels — not a small miss — and Bernstein responded by cutting its 2026 EPS forecast by 44% to $5.97. With COIN recently changing hands around $160, the stock sits miles below Bernstein's revised target, which is the whole argument.

The longer-term case still rests on two pillars. First, stablecoins — Coinbase pulls in approximately half of Circle's USDC revenue, a stream that doesn't require crypto prices to go up to grow. Second, derivatives. The Coinbase acquisition of Deribit handed the exchange one of the most liquid options venues in crypto, and Bernstein sees that business scaling hard. The firm projects a 26% revenue CAGR for Coinbase through 2027, which is a bold number given where sentiment sits today.

Call it what it is: a bet that the stablecoin and derivatives buildout carries Coinbase through whatever macro mess we're in right now, regardless of where spot Bitcoin trades. That's a different thesis than the one most retail holders are running.

Why Robinhood and Figure Might Bounce Faster

Bernstein's note makes an interesting distinction. Robinhood and Figure — precisely because they're less tethered to crypto prices — could rebound faster than Coinbase once market conditions stabilize. "Crypto is mere ~20% of HOOD revenues," Chhugani wrote, which means 80% of Robinhood's business is driven by other factors: equities, options, cash management, and increasingly, prediction markets.

That prediction markets angle deserves real attention. Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue at roughly $586 million for 2026 — a 286% year-over-year increase — powered by its distribution deal with Kalshi and a proprietary exchange called Rothera, built through a joint venture with Susquehanna. If those numbers land anywhere close, HOOD at $64 looks very cheap against the $130 target. On Monday, the stock was down about 3% on the day.

Figure is the most niche of the three. It's a pure blockchain tokenization business — no exchange risk, no crypto price beta in the traditional sense. The company crossed $1 billion in monthly loan origination volume in March and has been pushing beyond home equity lines of credit into auto loans, small business lending, and tokenized equities. FIGR was down less than 1% Monday at under $31, a steep discount to the $67 target.

We see stronger resilience particularly in HOOD and FIGR given revenues unlinked to crypto recovery — Figure is a pure blockchain tokenization business.

What Triggered the Selloff — and Does It Matter?

The backdrop matters here. Crypto-related stocks fell hard on Friday before this note dropped, with several names hitting multi-week lows. Bitcoin tumbled to $65,804 — down more than 4% on the day — touching $65,720 at its intraday low, the weakest print since March 2. That date is significant: it was the first trading session after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran, and markets have been digesting that shock ever since.

Geopolitical risk-off environments tend to hit crypto disproportionately. There's no safe-haven narrative that sticks when institutional players are pulling back across risk assets simultaneously. The question is whether this selloff has already priced in the war premium or if there's more downside ahead before the recovery Bernstein is calling for.

The Figure Technology Solutions IPO in September at a $5.3 billion valuation now looks like terrible timing in retrospect — the stock has been caught in the same macro crossfire as the rest of the sector. But that's the nature of going public into a bull market that turns. It doesn't change the underlying business trajectory, and Bernstein is clearly betting the market hasn't figured that out yet.