Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Turns Green First Time Since 2023

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator tracked by CryptoQuant flipped green on Wednesday for the first time since March 2023, sparking debate across the crypto analyst community about whether this regime-change signal marks a genuine turning point or just another head-fake in a market full of them.

What the CryptoQuant Signal Actually Says

Julio Moreno, an onchain market analyst at CryptoQuant, laid out the significance plainly. When the indicator moves out of bear territory and into what the firm calls the early bull zone, historical precedent suggests the worst of the correction is behind the market. Moreno wrote that this shift "often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover."

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator does not measure price directly. It captures the behavioral regime of the market using onchain data to assess whether Bitcoin is acting like a bear-market asset or has begun transitioning into early-stage accumulation. Moreno pointed to the 30-day moving average of the underlying data as a key sub-signal, noting that its recovery suggests "improving momentum beneath the surface" even as price action remains choppy.

Green does not mean go, though. Moreno himself noted the current setup is clashing with a neutral Fear and Greed index and a macroeconomic backdrop that is anything but clean. That tension is the story the headlines tend to skip over.

Historically, this has been an important regime-change signal. When the indicator moves out of bear territory and enters the early bull zone, it often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.

Has This Indicator Ever Been Wrong?

Yes. And that matters a lot right now. March 2022 is the example Moreno raised himself, which tells you something, analysts who live in this data know the scar tissue is real. Back then, the indicator turned bullish and the market responded by collapsing into a deeper downtrend that lasted well into 2023. One green candle on a regime indicator is not a trading thesis.

Mati Greenspan, founder at Quantum Economics and a former senior analyst at eToro, called the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator a regime-shift signal rather than a predictive tool. His framing is more useful than most of the takes circulating online. According to Greenspan, the indicator has historically been most valuable for confirming when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset. The forward-looking confirmation has to come from the market itself.

Greenspan pointed to 2019 and early 2023 as the clean examples, both periods when the indicator turned green following intense bearish phases and the market followed through with sustained uptrends. The current May 2026 setup, he said, still requires "sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels" before anyone should treat the signal as validated.

Historically, it has been most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset. So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation.

Bitcoin's $82,000 Resistance Problem

The Bitcoin price chart tells a story the onchain indicator does not: $82,000 has been a ceiling, not a level. Bitcoin staged a 35% rebound from the $60,000 lows hit in February, but multiple attempts to flip $82,000 into support have stalled. The tug-of-war Moreno described, onchain metrics healing while price struggles, is not subtle. Anyone watching the daily chart knows it.

Moreno called out the "exhaustion" visible in secondary metrics. That is the kind of language analysts use when the momentum indicators are rolling over even as the primary signal looks constructive. It is the market's version of looking strong in the gym while getting winded walking up stairs.

This setup is what makes the May 2026 green signal fundamentally different from the cleaner early-cycle entries of 2019 and 2023. Those transitions had cleaner macro environments and more decisive onchain recovery. Right now, the backdrop is a neutral sentiment reading and macro uncertainty that makes every rally feel provisional.

What Arthur Hayes and the Market Analysts Are Saying

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current chief investment officer at Maelstrom, did not reference the CryptoQuant indicator specifically, but his read on the cycle lines up with it. In his own analysis, Hayes stated that Bitcoin already found its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier this year. His next target is $90,000, the level he described as the threshold at which the rally would turn explosive and drive toward the previous high of $126,000.

Hayes is not known for hedging his calls. If he is wrong, he says so later and explains why. Right now he is on record as bullish, and that matters as a sentiment data point even if you disagree with his framework.

Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, offered the most grounded take of the group. His argument is that tools like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) get misread constantly because traders use them as timing signals when they were built to provide behavioral context. Fernandes said these metrics are "better viewed as behavioral frameworks for understanding where Bitcoin sits within a broader liquidity cycle", not buy or sell buttons.

That distinction matters. A regime-shift indicator going green tells you the character of the market is changing. It does not tell you when, or by how much, or whether the macro picture will cooperate. Traders who remember 2022 know the difference between a signal and a guarantee.

Metrics like MVRV or NUPL were never designed to be precise trading signals. They are better viewed as behavioral frameworks for understanding where Bitcoin sits within a broader liquidity cycle.