Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Selling Slows: VanEck

Bitcoin long-term holder selling decelerated meaningfully heading into mid-March 2026, according to VanEck's latest ChainCheck report — and analysts at the firm are calling it a signal worth paying attention to. Transfer volume dropped month-over-month across every single age cohort of holders, a pattern that VanEck describes as reducing distribution pressure from the market's most experienced participants. Whether that translates into price support is a different question entirely, but the on-chain picture is at least pointing in the right direction.

What VanEck's ChainCheck Found on LTH Activity

VanEck's bitcoin long-term holder selling data tells a fairly clear story: experienced holders slowed their distribution across the board in the weeks leading up to mid-March. Every age cohort — wallets that have held BTC for one year, two years, three years or longer — showed declining transfer volume month-over-month. That's not a selective slowdown. It's broad-based.

"Declining transfer activity among these cohorts typically signals reduced distribution pressure from experienced market participants," VanEck analysts wrote in the Thursday report. They labeled it "a potentially constructive signal" — which, in analyst-speak, means something real might be developing without betting the farm on it.

The framing is cautious for good reason. Long-term holder behavior has been one of the more reliable leading indicators across past Bitcoin cycles, but it's never a guarantee. What we can say is that older hands are not currently dumping — and in a market still navigating Fed-driven macro headwinds, that's not nothing.

Declining transfer activity among these cohorts typically signals reduced distribution pressure from experienced market participants — a potentially constructive signal.

Miners Are Holding Steady — But the Math Is Getting Tighter

The miner side of the equation is more complicated. Total miner revenues fell 11% month-over-month during the period, and mining equities dropped 7%. By every profitability metric, the economics of pure-play Bitcoin mining got worse. And yet — miners didn't panic-sell. Outflows to exchanges increased just 1% in BTC terms, according to the bitcoin miner selling pressure section of the same VanEck report.

"Despite this deterioration in economics, miners did not meaningfully increase selling pressure," the report said, adding that most operators appear to be "attempting to preserve their remaining reserves rather than aggressively liquidating holdings."

Aggregate miner balances — excluding wallets tied to Satoshi Nakamoto — came in at roughly 684,000 BTC as of mid-March, down only 0.5% year-over-year. That's a remarkably small decline given that approximately 164,000 new BTC were mined during the same stretch. As VanEck put it plainly: "Miners effectively sold the entire newly issued supply." Not more, not less. Holdings have been gradually drawing down since late 2023 to cover operations and capital expenditures, but there's no sign of a liquidation spiral — yet.

The "yet" matters. VanEck flagged the obvious risk: if Bitcoin prices stay depressed, miners will eventually have no choice but to accelerate BTC sales to cover fixed, dollar-denominated costs. That's a supply pressure scenario that the market would feel. It hasn't materialized, but it's sitting in the background.

The AI Pivot Is Reshaping Miner Behavior

One structural shift underneath all of this: a growing chunk of the mining industry is walking away from pure-play Bitcoin. Bitdeer sold its entire BTC treasury. Core Scientific and MARA — two of the larger publicly traded miners — have announced plans to liquidate holdings as they redirect capital toward AI infrastructure businesses. VanEck's report called these moves a sign of "increasing capital pressures" as traditional mining economics tighten.

This is worth dwelling on. The miners who once served as a kind of price floor — firms that would hold rather than sell because they believed in the asset — are now making rational calculations about AI data center returns versus Bitcoin price appreciation. When the firms that mine Bitcoin decide the upside is no longer worth it, that's a longer-term structural story, not a blip.

At the same time, the miners who are staying in the game appear disciplined. The data from VanEck suggests they're not flooding the market despite the revenue squeeze. That restraint is what's keeping the supply picture from deteriorating faster.

Why Does Onchain Activity Matter for Bitcoin's Price?

What does declining onchain transfer volume mean for Bitcoin?

Onchain activity was broadly subdued during the period. Overall transfer volume fell 31%, and daily fees dropped 27%. VanEck attributed part of this to trading migrating offchain — into derivatives markets and exchange-traded products — rather than direct spot transactions settling on the Bitcoin blockchain. When ETP volumes grow, fewer coins actually move on-chain because institutional flows route through fund structures instead.

That context matters for interpreting the long-term holder data. Lower transfer volumes can mean less selling — or they can mean less activity of any kind, including accumulation. The VanEck report leans toward the constructive read, specifically because the cohort-level breakdown shows consistent deceleration across all ages, not just a general volume drop.

Bitcoin was trading at $70,375 as of early Friday morning — up 1.1% in the prior 24 hours. That's a muted move for an asset that can swing 5-10% on any given day, but the direction is positive. The bigger picture: BTC has been dealing with persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a Federal Reserve that's holding rates steady while signaling it's in no rush to cut. Those aren't conditions that typically produce explosive rallies. Slow, quiet consolidation with reduced selling pressure is probably the best outcome available right now.

Call it boring if you want. But boring — when long-term holders are sitting on their coins and miners aren't panic-selling — is often exactly what precedes the next meaningful move higher.

Should bitcoin prices remain depressed, miners may be forced to accelerate BTC sales to cover recurring dollar-denominated costs, potentially increasing supply pressure.