Bitcoin Price Hits Most Challenging Phase at $72K

Bitcoin is grinding through what onchain analysts are calling the most psychologically challenging phase of the current bear market cycle, with BTC failing once again on Tuesday to clear the stubborn $72,000 resistance that has blocked upside since early March. Three converging onchain metrics — tracked by CryptoQuant researchers — suggest this stalemate isn't going anywhere fast.

Why Is Bitcoin Stuck in Its Most Challenging Phase?

Three onchain signals pointing to sustained bear market pressure

The bear market consolidation case isn't built on vibes — it's built on data. CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ laid out three specific onchain signals this week, describing a market navigating a period of "elevated uncertainty" where hesitation is dominating over conviction. The bull-bear market cycle indicator has shifted squarely into bear consolidation territory following the aggressive pullback from cycle highs. Historically, MorenoDV_ noted, this phase "tends to frustrate both bulls and bears" — there's no clean trade in either direction.

Apparent demand makes the picture worse. The brief spike in Bitcoin demand that showed up in mid-February turned out to be a head fake. Demand slipped back into negative territory almost immediately, confirming that buyers weren't actually committing. They were testing. And then retreating.

A combination of 3 key onchain metrics suggests that the market may be navigating one of the most psychologically challenging phases of the cycle.

Long-Term Holders Are Realizing Losses Now

Here's the part that actually stings. Long-Term Holder SOPR — a metric that measures whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss — has dipped below 1. Below 1 means losses are being realized. Not by panicking retail traders. By people who held through multiple cycles and are still getting underwater.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin supply in loss is climbing again, approaching the 40–45% range after sitting at just 22% in mid-January. CryptoQuant's Woominkyusu flagged this directly, calling it a sign of "rising market stress." The historical comparison is not comforting — similar supply-in-loss levels appeared during the deep corrective phases of 2015, 2019, and 2022. Those were not fun years to hold BTC.

Macro bottoms, according to historical data reviewed by CryptoQuant, have typically only formed when supply in loss crosses above 50%. We're not there yet — which, depending on how you read that, means either the bottom isn't in, or there's still room to accumulate before capitulation fully kicks in.

What Happens If Bitcoin Breaks $72,000?

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades flagged the $72,000 level as the key zone to watch on BTC's four-hour chart after Tuesday's rejection — describing it as "another rejection at the range high for the time being." The read from the chart was straightforward: if price can clear that level with conviction, new buyers enter the picture.

Analyst BenCrypz put it more bluntly. A clean breakout above $72,000 "could trigger stronger bullish momentum and open the path toward higher levels," he said. No breakout, no path. That's the trade.

Some forecasters aren't waiting around for a recovery thesis to play out. Analysts have projected Bitcoin's bear market extending into late 2026, with some downside calls as low as $30,000. That's the context sitting behind every failed $72K attempt — and why each rejection lands heavier than the last.