Bitcoin's $70K Push Stalls as Traders Shun Bullish Bets

Bitcoin's push toward $70,000 is getting uglier beneath the surface. The coin surged 4% in minutes on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced plans to temporarily de-escalate the conflict with Iran — but derivatives data told a very different story, one where traders aren't buying the rally at all.

A 4% Pop Nobody Trusted

Oil dropped 14% to $85 per WTI barrel almost immediately on the Trump news. The S&P 500 jumped 3%. Bitcoin got its 4% relief bounce. And then — nothing. The derivatives market didn't move the way you'd expect if traders actually believed the rally had legs.

Bitcoin futures on Monday settled at a 2% annualized premium over spot prices. That number matters because under normal, neutral conditions the futures basis runs between 4% and 8% — the extra premium traders demand to compensate for longer settlement windows. At 2%, you're basically looking at a market that's pricing in mild pessimism while technically calling itself neutral. Bulls aren't showing up. The leverage books aren't filling.

This isn't a one-day anomaly either. The same depressed futures premium held throughout the past month — including during a rally toward $76,000 last Tuesday. A brief pump toward new highs and derivatives traders still wouldn't budge. That's not caution. That's a market that's been burned and remembers it.

What Does Deribit's Options Data Actually Show?

Why are Bitcoin traders avoiding bullish positions in 2026?

Traders are avoiding bullish positions because the macro backdrop — high oil prices, restrictive Fed policy, and unresolved geopolitical risk — continues to punish risk assets, while Bitcoin's own October flash crash left deep scars on anyone running leveraged longs. The options numbers are painfully direct.

At Deribit, the $80,000 Bitcoin call option expiring April 24 traded at 0.017 BTC, or roughly $1,207. With 31 days until expiry and implied volatility of 48%, the market is pricing in just a 20% probability that BTC reaches $80,000 by that date. A 13% monthly gain in crypto — and the market gives it one-in-five odds.

To understand how unusual that is: crypto options markets are historically optimistic. Participants tend to bid up calls. A 20% implied probability on a near-term strike is the derivatives market raising its hand and saying, plainly, we don't believe this.

The October backstory matters. Bitcoin's flash crash coincided with escalating US import tariffs — including a 100% tariff on Chinese goods after China restricted rare-earth metal exports. The $19 billion in liquidations that followed wiped out cross-margin positions across exchanges and left market makers nursing severe losses. Every relief rally since has been met with the same wall of skepticism.

Is the $68,000 Floor Actually Holding?

One indicator worth watching: USD stablecoins traded at a 1.3% premium against the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday. When demand for crypto in the region spikes, this premium typically climbs above 1.5%. Panic selling pushes it to a discount. At 1.3%, you're reading a market that's calm — not buying hard, not selling hard.

The Bitcoin futures premium alongside this stablecoin data paints a coherent picture: modest resilience, nothing more. BTC retested $67,500 on Monday and held. That's something. But holding a support level while futures are depressed and options markets give you one-in-five odds at the next major target is not a recovery setup. That's a market waiting for a catalyst it hasn't found yet.

Gold's collapse didn't help the narrative either. The metal shed 21% over ten days — a move that reminded everyone that no asset class is safe when recession fears and inflation anxiety are running hot. Fuel prices ripple through logistics, compress corporate margins, and give the Fed every reason to stay restrictive. Monday's equity bounce wasn't enough to pull fixed-income investors back into risk, and Bitcoin isn't going to lead that charge alone.

Until oil reverts to $75 per barrel or lower, the headwinds stay. The war timeline is the wildcard nobody can price. And Bitcoin — sitting between $67,500 support and the $70,000 wall it can't seem to crack — is caught between macro forces that have nothing to do with its own fundamentals. Call it patient consolidation or call it a slow bleed. The derivatives market has made its read pretty clear.