Circle Could Rally 60% More on Stablecoin: Bernstein

Circle CRCL stock has more room to run — at least 60% more — according to Bernstein analysts who rate shares at outperform with a $190 price target. That's after the stock already more than doubled in recent weeks on an earnings beat that likely triggered a short squeeze. Bernstein's case isn't about momentum, though. It's built on something more durable: stablecoins quietly decoupling from the broader crypto market.

Why Bernstein Sees 60% More Upside in Circle Stock

Gautam Chhugani's team at Bernstein isn't chasing a hot chart. Their Bernstein $190 price target Circle is a structural call — stablecoin adoption is moving independently of crypto price cycles, and Circle sits at the center of that shift. At roughly $120 per share, the stock has already run more than 100% in weeks. Bernstein still sees meaningful upside ahead.

The earnings beat caught a crowded short position off-guard — textbook short squeeze. But the analysts say that was just the trigger. The real story is structural growth in dollar-denominated stablecoin infrastructure that keeps expanding regardless of where Bitcoin trades.

Does USDC Still Track Crypto Markets?

After the October liquidity shock rattled crypto markets, USDC stablecoin supply dipped — briefly. Then it came back. As of March 2026, USDC sits just shy of its all-time record $78 billion in circulation, even as Bitcoin trades well below its highs. That divergence is not a coincidence.

The full U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin market held steady at around $270 billion through the bear phase, the Bernstein report said. Adjusted volumes grew more than 90% year-over-year, and transaction velocity — how often tokens actually change hands — has risen too. Stablecoins aren't just a trader's waiting room anymore. They're functioning as a real payments layer.

Visa, Arc Blockchain, and What Drives the Bull Case

Payments is where this thesis gets concrete. Visa supports more than 130 stablecoin-linked cards across 50 countries, processing roughly $4.6 billion in annualized settlement volume. Circle's Payments Network — which lets institutions send USDC cross-border and convert it into local currencies through banking partners — has grown to about 55 institutions with $5.7 billion in annualized volume. Those are correspondent banking numbers, not crypto-native ones.

Then there's Arc, Circle's high-throughput blockchain designed for fast, low-cost payments — purpose-built for high-frequency, low-value transactions at scale.

Bernstein also highlights AI agentic finance as a new growth vector: autonomous software agents that will need programmable, instant payment rails for machine-to-machine micropayments — API calls, automated services, machine settlements. For holders of Circle CRCL stock, that's a long-horizon call option on top of an already-growing business. At $120, Bernstein thinks the market hasn't priced all three legs yet.