CLARITY Act's 2026 Odds Turn 'Extremely Low' Past April

The CLARITY Act is running out of runway — fast. The CLARITY Act, which aims to settle how the US regulates crypto markets, may have almost no shot at passing this year if it doesn't move through the Senate committee process within the next seven weeks, according to a crypto executive who tracks the legislation closely.

Seven Weeks Left — or Lose 2026 Entirely

'If CLARITY doesn't pass committee by the end of April, odds of passage in 2026 become extremely low,' Galaxy Digital head of firmwide research Alex Thorn posted on X on Saturday. 'This needs to hit the Senate floor by early May... floor time is running out, and odds diminish every day that passes.'

That's the part nobody wants to say out loud. The debate has centered on stablecoin yields — whether banks will lose deposits if crypto issuers pay interest — but Senate floor time is the real constraint, not coalition politics. Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed the chamber is deprioritizing crypto legislation heading into spring, choosing to focus instead on the SAVE America Act, which requires voters to show proof of US citizenship when registering in person.

If CLARITY doesn't pass committee by the end of April, odds of passage in 2026 become extremely low.

Is Stablecoin Yield Really the Final Hurdle?

Thorn isn't buying the single-obstacle framing. He warned that stablecoin rewards may be 'just the current hill the bill is dying on' — not the last one. Behind the yield debate, he flagged unresolved questions around DeFi, developer liability protections, and whether the SEC or CFTC holds primary regulatory authority over digital assets. Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a key Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, tried to manage expectations: 'All of us will probably walk away just a little bit unhappy,' she said Tuesday.

Wall Street made this bet months ago. TD Cowen warned in January that crypto market structure legislation may not pass until 2027 — and potentially not take effect until 2029 — if Democrats reclaim even one chamber of Congress after the midterms and stall the vote.

What Does a 2027 Delay Mean for Crypto Holders?

On March 4, President Trump publicly called out banks for stalling the Senate's crypto bill, posting: 'The US needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP.' Before that, Senator Bernie Moreno said on February 19 he expected the bill to move through Congress 'hopefully by April.' Both statements amount to pressure. Neither moves a Senate calendar.

No CLARITY Act in 2026 means more regulatory limbo — exchanges under enforcement threat, institutional capital staying cautious, and DeFi projects staying offshore or in legal gray zones. Thorn's math is simple: miss April, lose the year. And losing the year might mean losing the cycle.