Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Wave 3 Downside Risk

The Ethereum price prediction picture looks rough right now. ETH rejected resistance on the 1-hour chart and is trading near $2,241, with chart analysts warning that wave 3 of a downside move is still playing out. Add in four consecutive post-FOMC drops going back to October 2025, and the setup is giving short-term bulls very little to hold onto.

ETH Elliott Wave Analysis Points to More Selling

A chart breakdown shared by More Crypto Online shows ETH Elliott Wave analysis in a clear downward structure. Price failed to break above resistance and turned lower, which the analyst reads as confirmation that wave 3 to the downside is still active. That's a bearish signal in Elliott Wave theory, wave 3 moves are typically the strongest and most sustained of any impulse sequence.

The resistance zone for wave 4 sits between $2,290 and $2,334. A bounce into that area is possible, but traders should not mistake it for a trend reversal. In Elliott Wave terms, wave 4 is a corrective move against the dominant downtrend. It gives sellers a better price to re-enter short, not buyers a green light to pile in.

Ethereum is also sitting right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,240. This level is the first meaningful support in the Fibonacci sequence, and right now it's acting as a short-term anchor for price. The problem is that anchors break. If ETH loses this level, the chart targets drop to $2,178, then $2,119, and finally $2,037 in a staircase lower.

What Is the Ethereum Price Prediction Below $2,290?

Short answer: the path of least resistance is still down unless buyers can reclaim the $2,290 to $2,334 zone with conviction. The Ethereum price prediction based on current chart structure keeps sellers in control for as long as price stays below that range. A descending trendline is pressing down on the chart, and every rally attempt has been sold into.

The logic here is simple. Price moves below a falling trendline, rejects from defined resistance, and is mid-wave in a downside impulse. Until one of those conditions changes, the bias stays bearish. Traders watching this setup need a clean daily close above $2,334 before they can reasonably call a reversal.

A recovery above $2,334 would not guarantee a full trend change either. It would eliminate the immediate downside structure and open the door to testing the broader range high near $2,460, but the macro picture for ETH would need more than one candle to heal.

FOMC Meetings Have Crushed ETH Four Times in a Row

The Fed meeting pattern is the part of this story that deserves real attention. A daily ETHUSDT chart shared by analyst Ted shows four post-FOMC declines since October 2025 that were not small corrections. They were brutal. Ethereum FOMC price drop data from the chart shows ETH lost 35.01% after the October 29 meeting, 19.39% after the December 10 meeting, 42.57% after the January 28 meeting, and 17.50% after the March 18 meeting.

That is four meetings, four drops, zero exceptions. And now ETH is sitting near $2,323 heading into the April 29 FOMC result. The pattern does not guarantee a fifth decline, markets do not run on scripts, but the setup is uncomfortably familiar.

What drives these post-FOMC moves? Rate guidance, inflation signals, bond yield shifts, dollar strength, ETF flow data, and the broader crypto sentiment all play a role. A hawkish tone from the Fed tends to push risk assets lower, and ETH has been particularly sensitive to that pressure. Each of the four marked declines started near or just after the Fed meeting date, then continued lower over the following sessions.

The current short-term range to watch is $2,220 to $2,460. If ETH holds the lower end of that range, buyers may absorb the post-FOMC pressure before it spirals. Lose $2,220, though, and the chart starts looking very similar to the four earlier breakdowns. The structure would repeat. And at that point, the Fibonacci targets below at $2,178 and $2,119 become live conversations.

What Should ETH Holders Watch This Week?

Three things matter most right now. First, whether $2,240 holds as support into the end of the week. That Fibonacci level is the line between a shaky but intact structure and a chart that opens up to $2,037. Second, how price reacts to any test of the $2,290 to $2,334 resistance band. A rejection there confirms wave 4 and signals wave 5 downside is next. A breakout above $2,334 flips the script.

Third, and arguably most important: the April 29 FOMC aftermath. ETH was trading near $2,323 at the time of the meeting. If the post-meeting price action follows the same four-meeting script, sellers will show up in force over the next several sessions. If it breaks the pattern, that itself becomes a bullish signal worth paying attention to.

The honest takeaway here is that Ethereum has earned its reputation for post-FOMC weakness through four straight episodes. But chart patterns are not prophecy. Price does not owe the pattern anything. What it does owe traders is clarity, and right now the chart is giving them a very clear set of levels to work with.