Kalshi Moves Into Crypto Perpetual Futures on Bitcoin Under Michael Selig CFTC

Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market, is preparing to move into crypto perpetual futures on bitcoin and other tokens in the United States, a plan that would push it straight into the lane occupied by Coinbase and Kraken. The Information broke the news on Tuesday, April 21, citing unnamed sources familiar with the company's thinking. Kalshi declined to comment when reached by PYMNTS.

Why Is Kalshi Pivoting to Crypto Perpetual Futures Now?

The short answer: Washington finally opened the door. Perpetual contracts, the leverage-heavy futures with no expiration date that have powered offshore crypto trading for years, have been effectively banned for U.S. retail traders. That is about to change, and Kalshi is moving early to claim the ground before Coinbase and Kraken fully set up shop.

According to The Information's report, Kalshi already holds the licenses from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that would let it list these products the moment the agency signs off. That regulatory head start matters. It is the entire reason the company can even have this conversation.

The plan, per the report, is to start with bitcoin and a handful of other tokens, then expand into perpetuals on other asset classes down the line. Think equities. Think commodities. The prediction market was always the opening act.

What Michael Selig and the CFTC Have Signaled

None of this happens without the CFTC. And the CFTC, under new chairman Michael Selig, has made its intentions unusually clear for a financial regulator.

Selig said on March 3 that the agency plans to permit perpetual futures on cryptocurrencies in the United States, framing the move as a recovery mission for liquidity that drifted to Asia, Europe, and the Bahamas during the prior administration. He was not subtle about who he blamed.

The Biden administration drove crypto asset firms and liquidity offshore, including the perpetual futures markets. We've had perpetual futures in crypto assets for a very long time, but they've developed offshore. We've got to bring perpetual futures back to the US and are working towards getting them here soon.

The Collision Between Prediction Markets and Crypto Exchanges

Here is the part that gets glossed over in the headlines. Kalshi and the major crypto exchanges are fighting for the same customer. Young, risk-tolerant, mobile-first, comfortable with leverage. The product wrapper differs. The wallet share target does not.

PYMNTS reported in December that Coinbase was wading into prediction markets in collaboration with Kalshi itself, while also expanding its DEX trading integration to include futures and crypto perpetual futures access. So the frenemy dynamic is already baked in. Kalshi partners with Coinbase on one flank and competes with it on the other.

Kraken made its move last October, adding perpetual futures for retail customers and acquiring the CFTC-regulated designated contract market Small Exchange. That acquisition was not decorative. It was a license purchase. Same play Kalshi is now running, just from a different starting position.

And then there is the startup tier. Ex-FTX executive Brett Harrison raised $35 million in December for his perpetual futures exchange Architect Financial Technologies, a round that priced the company at $187 million. Everybody sees the same opening.

• Kalshi: CFTC-licensed prediction market, now targeting bitcoin perpetuals
• Coinbase: Partnering with Kalshi on predictions, building its own perpetuals via DEX
• Kraken: Launched retail perpetuals in October, bought Small Exchange for the license
• Architect Financial Technologies: $35M raised, $187M valuation, Brett Harrison at the helm

What Are Crypto Perpetual Futures, and Why Does Onshoring Them Matter?

Perpetual futures are derivatives contracts that track the price of an underlying asset, usually a token like bitcoin or ether, without a set expiration. Traders use them to take leveraged long or short positions, paying or receiving a funding rate to keep the contract price anchored to spot. On venues like Binance and Bybit, perps account for the vast majority of daily crypto volume.

The U.S. has watched that volume bleed offshore for years. Onshoring it is not just about trading fees. It is about market data, price discovery, and surveillance. When the reference price for bitcoin is set on an exchange in Singapore, U.S. regulators are working off somebody else's tape. Selig clearly wants that tape back.

For retail traders, the arrival of regulated domestic perps would mean fewer VPN workarounds and more recourse if something goes wrong with an exchange. It would also mean, frankly, easier access to leverage that has vaporized a lot of retail accounts overseas. Both sides of that coin are real.

The Bigger Picture for Kalshi's Playbook

Kalshi spent the last year winning the legal and political fights that got prediction markets into the mainstream conversation. Election contracts, sports markets, congressional odds. Each win bought the company more regulatory credibility and more distribution. Crypto perpetuals are the logical next escalation.

If the CFTC moves on the timeline Selig sketched out, Kalshi could be live with bitcoin perps before the end of the year. That would put it in front of Coinbase's own retail perps rollout and potentially ahead of Kraken's expansion plans. First mover status in a regulated U.S. perpetuals market is worth a lot.

Call it the quiet pivot. Kalshi was never just a prediction market. It was a CFTC-licensed exchange in search of products. Perpetuals are the product that actually moves the valuation.

What Happens Next

The next shoe to drop is the CFTC itself. Selig's March comments were directional. They were not a rule. An actual framework, whether through no-action relief, a certification process, or a full rulemaking, has to materialize before Kalshi or anyone else can flip the switch legally.

Meanwhile, New York is suing Coinbase and Gemini over prediction markets, a reminder that state-level friction has not disappeared. The federal green light does not automatically clear state lanes.

Kalshi is betting that it can skate through the federal-state tangle faster than its competitors. Given how the last year has gone for the company, that bet is not crazy.