Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI as Equity Performance Decouples From BTC
Elena Marques
October 21, 2025
“Investors are paying for compute optionality, not just block rewards,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a research note.
Equity Performance Diverges
JPMorgan’s latest coverage shows the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF outpacing BTC by 12 percentage points month-to-date even as bitcoin trades sideways. Names like Bitdeer, CleanSpark, and IREN are being bid up on the promise of AI hosting revenue, with analysts noting correlation to BTC has dropped to multi-year lows.
The decoupling reflects investors valuing miners as hybrid compute companies rather than pure crypto plays. Some funds now model miner equities alongside cloud infrastructure and data center peers.
Capital Markets Fuel Expansion
The week saw a flurry of financing updates: Bitdeer closed a $1 billion convertible note program, IREN confirmed new equity raises, and several mid-cap miners announced term sheets for GPU purchases. Debt markets remain open for creditworthy operators, though coupons have widened compared with pre-halving deals.
Investment bankers say miners are pitching AI/HPC contracts as predictable revenue streams that can backstop capital expenditures. That pitch has resonated with institutions seeking exposure to compute demand without taking direct positions in chipmakers.
Revenue Mix Evolves
Hosting deals with AI labs and enterprise HPC tenants are now projected to account for 25–40% of some miners’ 2026 revenue. Companies are repurposing underutilized sites for GPU clusters, while still maintaining bitcoin self-mining to capture upside during rallies.
Management teams say diversified income smooths cash flow, but skeptics worry about execution risk and higher operating costs. GPU supply constraints and power pricing remain key swing factors.
Implications for Hash Rate
While miners chase AI revenue, they still face the post-halving challenge of sustaining hash rate. Some analysts predict slower growth in global hash as capital diverts to HPC investments. Others argue that efficiency gains from new ASICs will offset resource shifts, keeping bitcoin network security intact.
Miners say AI pivots will not cannibalize their bitcoin operations; rather, they expect cross-subsidies where HPC profits fund ASIC upgrades and renewable energy projects.
Risks and Watchpoints
Analysts highlight execution risk, regulatory scrutiny over power usage, and potential correlation with the cyclical AI sector. If demand for GPU hosting cools, miners could be left with expensive infrastructure and heavy debt loads. Conversely, a sustained AI boom might intensify competition for power and chips, squeezing margins.
For investors, the takeaway is to watch contract visibility, leverage levels, and how management balances compute diversification with bitcoin core operations.