Polymarket Users Threatened a Journalist Over Iran Bets

Polymarket has banned and reported users who threatened an Israeli journalist with death threats in an attempt to manipulate a $17 million prediction market on Iranian missile strikes — a case that lays bare the ugly incentive structure lurking inside real-money prediction markets tied to live conflict.

A Journalist Caught in a $17M Betting War

On March 10, an Iranian ballistic missile struck an open area outside the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh. No injuries were reported. Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian filed a brief, factual report about it — and then his inbox exploded.

Fabian said he began receiving emails, messages, and calls from unknown parties demanding he change his report to describe the missile as a fragment or an intercepted projectile. The motivation became clear fast. The Iran strikes Israel prediction market on Polymarket had over $17 million wagered on which specific date Iran would carry out an attack on Israeli soil. Market rules stated a Yes resolution required Iran to initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel — but a critical clause excluded 'missiles or drones that are intercepted' even if they physically landed in Israel.

That single clause turned Fabian's short field report into contested evidence worth millions of dollars.

Death Threats, Fabricated Messages, and Personal Information

The pressure campaign escalated beyond emails. Fabian said he received lengthy, threatening messages in Hebrew from a person identified only as 'Haim,' who warned him to alter the report or face 'damage you have never imagined you would suffer.' Haim told him he was 'at risk,' that they would invest money 'to finish you,' and that he had made 'enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable.'

That wasn't the worst of it. Haim also provided 'specific details' about Fabian's parents, family, and neighborhood — a move that reads less like a warning and more like a demonstration of surveillance capability. One person went further: they fabricated a message designed to make it appear that Fabian himself had agreed the missile was intercepted, an attempt to preemptively reframe the facts.

Separately, a colleague from another media outlet reached out saying an acquaintance wanted the report changed. When that journalist later confronted their acquaintance directly, the person admitted to holding Polymarket bets and offered to split the winnings if the story was altered.

Fabian went to the police. Israeli authorities have opened an investigation.

My minor report on a missile striking an open area was now in the middle of a betting war, with those who had bet 'No' on an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10 demanding I change my article to ensure they would win big.

Polymarket Responds — But Is That Enough?

Polymarket posted a statement to X on Monday saying it 'condemns the harassment and threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter.' According to Polymarket's response reported by the Times of Israel, the platform has banned all involved accounts and will pass user information to relevant authorities.

Banning accounts is the obvious move. The harder question — the one Polymarket didn't address — is structural. When you attach real money to the outcome of a specific news report, you're creating a financial incentive to corrupt that reporting. This particular market had $17 million on the line. The 'No' bettors stood to lose significant sums if Fabian's original reporting held. A journalist's phone number and the right financial motivation is all it takes from there.

This isn't Polymarket's first collision with Israeli military events, either. Israel previously arrested two individuals over Polymarket trades tied to military operations — a sign that the intersection of prediction markets and live geopolitical events is drawing serious law enforcement attention.

This behavior violates our Terms of Service and has no place on our platform. We've banned the accounts for all involved and will pass their info to the relevant authorities.

What Does This Mean for Prediction Markets Going Forward?

The prediction market industry has been riding an extraordinary wave. Trading volumes on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged through 2024 and into 2025, with markets on elections, wars, and policy decisions attracting mainstream attention and real institutional dollars. Lawmakers in the US and abroad have been watching — and critics have repeatedly warned that markets tied to political and military events could incentivize insider trading, market manipulation, and now apparently, direct coercion of journalists.

Fabian's situation forces the uncomfortable question of what happens when a prediction market essentially puts a bounty on a specific journalistic outcome. The reporter controls the facts the market is pricing. That's not a gap in terms of service — it's a design flaw. A market structured around whether a missile 'counts' as intercepted invites exactly this kind of legalistic pressure campaign.

Emanuel Fabian's account of the threats ended with a pointed warning: 'The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed. But I do worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings.' That's the line that should give the industry pause. Not every journalist will be as principled. And some prediction market payouts will be worth far more than $17 million.

For now, the market's resolution remained in dispute at the time of writing — with No bettors still contesting the outcome. But the Israeli Defense Forces later confirmed to Fabian that the missile that struck outside Beit Shemesh was not intercepted. Which means the people who threatened him were wrong about the facts too.

The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed. But I do worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings.