TD Cowen: 3 Crypto Stocks That Could Beat Bitcoin ETFs

TD Cowen crypto stocks coverage dropped Thursday with analyst Lance Vitanza going out on a limb -- Buy ratings on three digital asset treasury companies that have already cratered by 90% or more from their peaks. His argument: if crypto prices bounce and these firms keep growing their token holdings on a per-share basis, they could actually outrun spot crypto exchange-traded products. That's a big if. But the math Vitanza is putting forward is worth understanding.

Nakamoto: Bitcoin Accumulator With a Global Twist

Vitanza launched coverage of Nakamoto (NAKA) with a Buy and a $1.00 price target -- nearly a fivefold return from Thursday's close of $0.21. That target rests on three assumptions: estimated bitcoin dollar gains of $394 million for fiscal 2027, a 2x multiple, and bitcoin trading at roughly $140,000 by the end of 2026.

What separates Nakamoto from other public bitcoin treasury plays, according to Vitanza, is the company's structure. It doesn't just pile up BTC directly -- it also holds minority stakes in overseas treasury companies including Metaplanet and Treasury BV. Layer on top of that a handful of operating businesses in media, bitcoin advocacy, and digital asset management, and you get what the analyst called 'distinct synergy potential.' Whether that synergy ever materializes is a different question entirely.

For context, TD Cowen crypto stocks coverage has positioned Nakamoto as the most aggressive upside call of the three -- precisely because the stock is the cheapest and the leverage to bitcoin appreciation is the most direct.

SharpLink Gaming: Can an Ethereum Treasury Actually Outperform ETH ETFs?

SharpLink Gaming is the ETH play in the group. Vitanza started SBET with a Buy and a $16 price target against a $6.42 close Thursday -- roughly a 2.5x from here. His model assumes $93 million in ether dollar gains for fiscal 2026, a 2x multiple, and ether reaching about $3,650 by December 2026.

The leadership angle is real and worth paying attention to. SharpLink Gaming Ethereum treasury operations are run by Joseph Chalom, former head of digital assets at BlackRock, and Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum itself. That's not a random management team. The strategy is to grow ether per share through treasury operations and staking -- and Vitanza's case for outperforming spot ether ETPs is actually specific: ETF investors absorb management fees, and many ether ETFs still can't stake a meaningful chunk of their holdings due to regulatory and structural constraints.

So even if ETH stays range-bound or drifts lower, staking yield could cover operating costs and keep SharpLink generating positive ETH yield per share. That's the thesis. It's sensible, but it depends entirely on the staking environment staying favorable and the company not burning cash faster than it earns yield.

Even if ether stays weak, staking income should more than cover operating costs.

Strive: The Consolidator Thesis and a Watershed Moment

Strive (ASST) is where the story gets structurally interesting. Vitanza initiated with a Buy and a $26 price target -- nearly triple the Thursday close of $9.64. His assumptions: $142 million in bitcoin dollar gains for fiscal 2026, a 2x multiple, and bitcoin at $140,000 by year-end.

The detail that matters most here is acquisition history. According to Vitanza, Strive bitcoin treasury acquisition of Semler Scientific -- completed in January 2026 -- made Strive the first public bitcoin treasury company to buy another one. Vitanza called it a 'watershed event,' and the logic that flows from it is straightforward: if more treasury companies end up trading at a discount to their bitcoin holdings, Strive becomes a natural buyer. It's an M&A consolidator story layered on top of a bitcoin treasury story.

Strive also runs asset management, social media marketing, and bitcoin education operations. In theory, those support the treasury business and give the company more levers to pull. In practice, Strive -- like the other two -- is entirely dependent on bitcoin recovering and holding above the price targets Vitanza is projecting.

Why Does Any of This Beat a Bitcoin ETF?

The core argument across all three picks is leverage. A spot bitcoin ETF tracks BTC price movement almost exactly, minus fees. These treasury stocks, if they're growing their token holdings per share, could theoretically amplify the upside -- more BTC per share over time means each share is worth more even if bitcoin's price just stays flat.

But that same leverage cuts in the other direction on the way down, which is exactly what happened to get all three stocks here. NAKA, SBET, and ASST are each down 90%+ from their highs. Vitanza is betting that the accumulation strategy -- buying more tokens, staking where possible, acquiring when others are distressed -- pays off if and when crypto sentiment turns. That's a recovery play wrapped in institutional packaging, and whether you find it compelling depends almost entirely on your crypto price outlook for the rest of 2026.