XRP Price Prediction: CLARITY Act Odds Fall to 62%

The XRP price prediction heading into Thursday May 14 comes down to a single Senate hearing room in the Dirksen Office Building. XRP is trading near $1.46 after briefly tagging $1.50 earlier this week on a volume surge, but the breakout stalled the moment it met overhead resistance. Whether that breakout holds or collapses depends almost entirely on what the Senate Banking Committee does with the CLARITY Act at its 10:30 AM EST markup session.

How Did CLARITY Act Odds Go From 46% to 90% in a Week?

Three weeks ago, prediction market traders were pricing CLARITY Act passage in 2026 at just 46%. Then Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott put a hard date on the calendar, the May 14 markup, and the market repriced fast. By last week, odds had jumped to 79%. Over the weekend, they briefly hit 90% intraday before pulling back to around 75%.

Then the banking lobby got involved. Five major banking trade groups, including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, formally rejected the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin compromise. Their core objection: the compromise still allows crypto platforms to offer yield-bearing products that function like deposit interest. More pointed, the groups warned that yield-earning stablecoins could shrink consumer, small-business, and farm loans by one-fifth or more. That letter landed with real market weight. Odds dropped 17 points in 48 hours.

As of Monday, May 11, Polymarket odds sit at 62% with a 3% drop in the last 24 hours. Kalshi's competing market reads 69%, so both prediction platforms agree the bill is more likely to pass than fail, but the certainty that briefly felt like a done deal is gone.

Some in the banking industry may not want either of these things to happen, and we respectfully agree to disagree.

What Happens Thursday, and Why the Vote Is Binary for XRP

The Senate Banking Committee meets at 10:30 AM EST on Thursday, May 14 in the Dirksen Senate Office Building. The panel has 24 senators: 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Thirteen yes votes send the bill to the full Senate floor. That math is tighter than it looks.

Chairman Tim Scott wants all 13 Republicans locked in, what he described in an April Fox Business interview as the red zone. The problem is Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. Per Punchbowl News, Kennedy's hesitation has nothing to do with the bill's crypto provisions. He is reportedly frustrated over a separate Senate housing bill that has stalled, and he's using his vote as leverage. If Kennedy stays out by Thursday, Scott needs at least one Democrat to cross over.

The early signals on Thursday morning will tell traders almost everything. Watch opening statements from Republicans for any hedging language, that's the first sign votes are soft. Then count amendment attempts in the first 30 minutes. A wave of strip amendments means the banking lobby has peeled off Republican support behind the scenes. The first contested vote margin closes the picture: a 12-11 or 13-10 result keeps the bill moving, but a wider split or a banking-friendly amendment actually passing signals the compromise is coming apart.

A committee passage is not law. The bill still needs 60 votes on the full Senate floor, then reconciliation with the House version, then the President's signature. The White House has publicly targeted July 4 for the signing ceremony. Missing Thursday pushes the bill past the Memorial Day recess starting May 21, and Senator Lummis was direct about this at Bitcoin 2026: miss this window, and the bill likely doesn't come back until 2030.

XRP Price Targets: Three Scenarios After Thursday

According to XRP price data on CoinMarketCap, XRP has been grinding against the $1.45 resistance level since the US-Iran conflict escalated in late February. This week's markup announcement gave the bulls enough fuel to push through it momentarily, with the token touching $1.50 before sellers showed up and pushed it back toward the breakout zone.

That zone has real weight beneath it. About 1.16 billion XRP were acquired by investors who are now underwater near current prices, and there are roughly $3 billion in sell orders stacked above the current price. Without a fresh catalyst, gravity pulls the price back into the $1.30-$1.44 range XRP has spent most of 2026 in.

Scenario one: a clean committee vote Thursday. If the markup passes without drama, the technical setup points clearly higher. A cup-and-handle pattern has been building since the March 10 low at $1.15, with a measured target of $1.65-$1.70. The 200-day moving average sits at $1.80, and a close above that level opens up a run past $2.00.

Scenario two: full Senate passage by July 4 plus ETF capital. This is the bull case. If institutional money flows through XRP ETFs as the bill moves toward a signing, the price range discussed is $3-$5 by year-end. That would require both the legislative win and coordinated capital deployment, a high bar, but traders are pricing it as possible.

Scenario three: the markup stalls. Kennedy holds out, or a banking-aligned amendment guts the compromise. XRP falls back to $1.30-$1.44, with $1.28 as the major support below. The broader catalyst for 2026 evaporates, and the timeline extends by years.

Is Bitcoin the Bigger Variable Right Now?

Here's the honest read on the 62% Polymarket number: even if the committee clears Thursday's vote, XRP's trajectory depends on more than the CLARITY Act alone. XRP's biggest rallies in the past year came when two conditions lined up simultaneously, a clear regulatory catalyst AND Bitcoin strength.

Bitcoin breaking above $82,000 and softening its dominance ratio would rotate capital into altcoins including XRP. Without that rotation, even a positive Thursday headline might produce a short-lived pump that fades into the existing overhead supply.

Thursday's vote is real and it matters. But traders stacking XRP bets exclusively on the CLARITY Act outcome might be ignoring the asset that actually controls the altcoin tide. The CLARITY Act is the spark. Bitcoin's direction decides whether there's fuel to burn.