Gemini Shares Climb 7% on Prediction Markets Bet

Gemini shares surged roughly 7% in after-hours trading on Thursday, hitting $6.45 after a $6.01 close, as investors looked past a sharp drop in crypto trading volumes and focused instead on what the Winklevoss brothers' exchange is becoming — a prediction markets company with a credit card, not just a place to buy Bitcoin.

Services Revenue Beats Trading for the First Time

The numbers that moved the stock weren't the headline volume figures. Q4 2025 trading volume came in at $11.5 billion, down 30% from the prior quarter as the broader market cooled — a slide that would normally spook investors. But Gemini's fee structure changes and a higher share of retail orders using premium order types helped keep transaction revenue relatively stable despite the volume decline.

The real story was in the services line. For the first time, Gemini Q4 2025 results showed services and interest revenue outpacing transaction revenue in a single quarter — a structural shift the company has been working toward for years. Services revenue jumped 33% quarter-on-quarter to $26.5 million, driven primarily by the credit card business and a pickup in user engagement across Gemini's platform.

For the full year, services revenue more than doubled. Total 2025 revenue hit $179.6 million, up 26% year-over-year. The net loss, though — $582.8 million for 2025 — makes clear how much runway this company is still burning through. Profitability is the goal; it just isn't here yet.

What Is Gemini's Prediction Markets Platform?

How does Gemini's prediction markets product work?

Gemini's prediction markets platform is a regulated venue where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes — elections, economic data, sports results, crypto price movements. The exchange secured a Designated Contract Market licence from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, launching the product in December 2025 through an entity called Gemini Titan, a subsidiary of Gemini Space Station Inc.

Since launch, Gemini prediction markets have pulled in more than 15,000 traders across its categories. The company frames it as something bigger than a product extension — almost philosophical, really.

The shareholder letter put it this way:

Gemini said the platform creates a new transaction revenue stream that doesn't move with crypto market cycles. That's the pitch to investors who've watched crypto exchanges get crushed during every bear market: this time, there's a hedge built into the business model.

The timing of the pivot is awkward in one specific way. Gemini is currently facing a Gemini IPO class-action lawsuit alleging the company misled investors by failing to disclose its prediction markets plans in its IPO filings. Whether that shapes how aggressively the company promotes this pivot remains to be seen — but the legal cloud is real.

From politics to economic indicators, business, tech, culture, and sports, prediction markets are forecasting the future more accurately and more quickly than traditional pollsters, experts, and media. This is a profound change in the world's source of truth and an equally profound solution to the loss of trust in our institutions and resulting epistemological crisis.

Cutting Costs, Exiting Markets — Is This a Real Pivot?

Alongside the earnings release, Gemini confirmed it cut roughly 30% of its workforce and is pulling out of three international markets — the UK, EU, and Australia — to double down on its U.S. operations. That's a meaningful retreat for a company that had global ambitions just a couple years ago.

The credit card business is being held up as a key growth driver. Transaction volume through Gemini's card exceeded $1.2 billion in 2025, with revenue growing sharply year-over-year. It's the kind of consumer financial product that builds stickiness independent of whether Bitcoin is up or down — and that's exactly what the restructuring is designed to maximize.

Call it pragmatism, call it a pivot forced by necessity — either way, Gemini is building a different company than the one that went public. The question investors are betting on right now is whether cutting fat and launching prediction markets is enough to close a $582.8 million net loss gap before the capital runs out. Thursday's after-hours pop suggests at least some of them like the odds.