USDC Overtook USDT in Adjusted YTD Volume: Mizuho
Circle's USDC surpassed Tether's USDT in 2026 adjusted YTD transaction volume for the first time since 2019, per Mizuho's Friday research note.
What to Know
- $2.2 trillion — Circle's USDC adjusted year-to-date transaction volume, surpassing Tether's USDT at $1.3 trillion
- 64% market share in USDC vs. USDT volumes, according to Mizuho — the first reversal since 2019
- Mizuho raised its Circle stock price target from $100 to $120 following the volume data analysis
USDC transaction volume just pulled ahead of Tether's USDT for the first time in six years. Japanese investment bank Mizuho published that finding in a research note on Friday — and the crypto market barely reacted, even though the implications run deeper than headline market cap figures.
Mizuho's Numbers: Volume Over Market Cap?
Mizuho's analysts found that USDC transaction volume reached roughly $2.2 trillion in adjusted year-to-date transactions, while Tether's USDt logged just $1.3 trillion over the same period. That works out to 64% volume market share for USDC — a clean reversal of a trend that held since 2019 with USDT in front.
The bank was blunt about what it means: the stablecoin that ultimately wins won't be the one with the biggest market cap. It'll be whichever one people use daily, for real transactions. Tether still holds roughly $184 billion in circulating supply versus USDC's $79 billion — but if volume is the real scoreboard, that gap matters less than it used to.
The data shows USDC vs. USDT volumes at 64% market share. This is a reversal in a long-term trend of USDT volumes surpassing USDC in 2019-2025.
What Does the Circle IPO Have to Do With It?
The Mizuho Circle price target upgrade — from $100 to $120 — came packaged with the volume data, which isn't coincidental. Circle is a public company now, and Wall Street analyst coverage follows. The Circle IPO NYSE closed in June 2025, giving Mizuho direct incentive to build a growth narrative. Circle's stock moved little after the note — the market either priced it in already, or isn't sold yet.
Does Congress Even Care About Stablecoins Right Now?
In Washington, the stablecoin legislation that would cement regulatory clarity — the CLARITY Act, passed by the House — is still gridlocked in the Senate over debates around yield, ethics, and tokenized equities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Thursday he expected voting-requirements bills to land before crypto market structure, and didn't see the latter moving until at least April. USDC may be pulling ahead on volume. The rulebook for what that means hasn't been written yet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is USDC transaction volume compared to USDT?
According to Mizuho's research note released Friday, Circle's USDC reached approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted year-to-date transaction volume, compared to Tether's USDT at $1.3 trillion. That gives USDC a 64% volume market share — the first time it has led since 2019.
Why did Mizuho raise its Circle price target to $120?
Mizuho raised its Circle stock price target from $100 to $120 after analyzing USDC and USDT transaction volumes. The bank concluded that USDC's volume leadership signals stronger real-world adoption, which it views as the key competitive metric for stablecoin issuers going forward.
Does Tether still lead in stablecoin market cap?
Yes. Despite losing the volume lead, Tether's USDT still holds the largest stablecoin market capitalization at approximately $184 billion, more than double Circle's USDC at $79 billion. Mizuho argues volume — not market cap — is the better indicator of long-term stablecoin dominance.