USDC Tops USDT in Volumes for the First Time Since 2019

USDC has quietly pulled off something most stablecoin watchers weren't expecting: it has overtaken Tether's USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019, prompting Mizuho analysts to lift their Circle (CRCL) price target to $120 from $100 — even as the bank held its neutral rating on the stock.

The Volume Flip Nobody Was Watching For

Circle's USDC has racked up roughly $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026. Tether posted $1.3 trillion over the same stretch. That hands USDC about 64% of the adjusted volume pie — a jarring reversal from 2019 through 2025, when USDC averaged around a 30% share while Tether consistently led.

Here's the thing the headlines keep burying: market cap and transaction volume tell completely different stories. Tether USDT still holds a $143 billion market cap versus USDC's $78 billion. On that single number, Tether looks dominant. But Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins argued in their Friday report that the long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be decided by real economic usage — not how much capital is parked in the token. If they're right, USDC just flipped the scoreboard.

The analysts cited USDC adoption in venues like Polymarket and growing demand from agentic commerce as drivers of the volume surge. Those aren't marginal use cases anymore.

Why Did Mizuho Raise Its Circle Price Target?

What drove the Mizuho price target increase for Circle?

Mizuho's upgrade reflects stronger long-term Circle forecasts tied to the USDC volume shift. The bank raised its estimate for "meaningful wallets" to 11.7 million by 2027, up from a prior estimate of 10 million. Projected USDC market cap was lifted to $139 billion from $123 billion. Circle Internet Group shares touched $115.40 in early trading — up about 95% from their February lows.

But not everyone is reading this as a fundamentals story. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said the stock's outsized post-earnings reaction owed more to crowded short bets heading into the print than to strong financials. A classic short squeeze, in other words. William Blair analysts offered a middle ground: yes, rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Fed matter, but USDC's market cap resilience through the broader crypto downturn is also real, and investors are starting to properly price Circle's infrastructure position.

The long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be determined by real economic usage rather than market capitalization alone.

What Does This Mean for the Stablecoin Race?

Standard Chartered put a number on where all this is heading: a $2 trillion stablecoin market cap by end of 2028. That's roughly a 9x increase from current total levels. If USDC's volume dominance holds, Circle is positioned better than market cap alone suggests.

The irony is that the stablecoin conversation has been framed around Tether's lead for years. That framing may be getting stale. Transaction volume — money actually moving, being used to settle trades, fund wallets, power prediction markets — is a harder argument to dismiss than reserves parked in a token.